by David Fleitz

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Reporters and columnists had speculated that the imminent folding of two (Twins and Expos) or even four (Twins, Expos, Devil Rays, and Marlins) teams was under discussion. Now the Commissioner's office says that 18 teams were mentioned?

Which 18 teams, for heaven's sake?

Of the 30 present teams, there are at least 20 to 22 that aren't going anywhere soon. They either have solid attendance, excellent fan support, a profitable cable TV deal, loads of tradition, or an expensive new ballpark to pay for.

Surely, the box-office performances of some teams have been disappointing lately, but that doesn't mean that they'll go out of business in the near future. Does Bud Selig think that the Detroit Tigers will fold, leaving one of the largest cities in the nation with two empty ballparks, one old and one brand-new? Or the Pirates or Brewers, right after their new parks have opened for business? Or does he think that the Phillies and Reds will fold up and leave their new parks unfinished?

Let's categorize the 30 existing clubs in terms of their viability:

Solid teams - 11 successful ballclubs that no one in his right mind would possibly consider folding:

New York Yankees
New York Mets
Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Indians (new ballpark)
Seattle Mariners (new ballpark)
St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles

That leaves 19 other teams. Does Selig really believe that there are 18 contraction candidates among the remaining 19 clubs?

These 10 teams have recently built new ballparks, or are now building them. They won't fold up the tent any time soon:

Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds (new stadium opening in 2003)
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies (new stadium opening in 2004)
San Diego Padres (the voters approved a new stadium, but the construction has not yet begun)
Arizona Diamondbacks

These 3 franchises haven't done well lately, but may be considered only as the longest of longshots for dissolution:

Toronto Blue Jays (they've drawn well in the past at SkyDome, and should do so again if they start winning)
Chicago White Sox (they need to fix some of the problems at new Comiskey Park, built in 1991)
Anaheim Angels (attendance is disappointing, but they spent a lot of money to refurbish their stadium)

That leaves as candidates for contraction:

Minnesota Twins
Oakland A's
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Florida Marlins
Montreal Expos
Kansas City Royals

Six teams, not 18.  Selig, who is trying to convince a skeptical public that baseball is in serious financial danger, wildly exaggerated the number of teams under consideration.  It's a negotiating ploy, nothing more.