by David Fleitz

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Gary Carter in 1984. He was traded to the Mets a year later.

The Hall of Fame ballots are due on New Year's Eve. I don't have one, but if I did, I'd vote for:

Ozzie Smith. Ozzie was the quintessential artificial-turf shortstop. He was quick and acrobatic, and he became famous for his spectacular diving stops. He was able to make those plays because he knew that he would always get a true bounce off the St. Louis turf, so he took advantage of the turf and his athletic ability. He made himself into a hitter, after contributing very little at the bat in his first few seasons. He also stole a lot of bases. Ozzie was the most spectacular fielding shortstop I ever saw, with only Omar Vizquel coming close to him.

Gary Carter. His vote totals rose from 34% to 50% to 65% in the last three years, and I think this is the year that Carter gets in. His career was very similar to that of Carlton Fisk, though Carter was a better hitter in a shorter career. Carter was one of the few catchers to lead the league in a batting category (RBI in 1984); catchers usually don't do that, because they play fewer games than outfielders or infielders. Winning the 1986 World Series with the Mets counts in his favor, too.

Jim Rice. He got 57% of the vote last year, and almost nobody gets that high in the balloting and fails to get in. His career stats are remarkably similar to those of Orlando Cepeda, who was elected in 1999, so if Cepeda is in, Rice should be too, because Rice was probably a better player. Though Rice's career ended after 16 years in Boston with bitterness and arguments with his managers, Rice drove in a lot of runs and helped the Red Sox to two pennants.

Jack Morris. He was hard to get along with, and his 3.90 career ERA would be the worst of any pitcher in the Hall. However, how can they let in Jim Bunning (224 wins, 184 losses, never pitched in a World Series) and leave out Morris (254-186, pitched in 3 Series with a 4-2 record). Morris is Jim Bunning with better credentials.

I'd leave off my ballot:

Andre Dawson. I don't see him getting in on the first ballot, but his 438 homers and 1987 MVP award might get him elected sooner or later. He was good, but he never quite lived up to the predictions of superstardom that everyone made for him early in his career. His stats closely matched those of Dave Winfield, except that Winfield lasted longer.

Don Mattingly. A great player, but his career was too short. He got 28% in his first try on the ballot last year, and it will be interesting to see where he winds up this year. If he makes a significant leap forward - like, say, 40% or more - he'll probably be elected in a few years.

Bert Blyleven. He won 287 games, but made only two All-Star teams? Blyleven is a guy who was pretty good and played for a long time, not one of the all-time greats.

Tommy John. John (288-231) has a marginally better record than Blyleven (287-250), but he made only four All-Star teams in his 26-year career. He's another guy like Blyleven - a pretty good pitcher who played for a long time. Don Sutton (324-256) was the same kind of pitcher, but a little better; so were Early Wynn (300-244) and Phil Niekro (318-274) and Gaylord Perry (314-265). I think that guys like these should pass the 300-win barrier to be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter. Gossage lasted longer, but Sutter was more dominant. If I had to vote for one of them I'd vote for Gossage, but Dennis Eckersley was a greater relief pitcher. Eckersley, who will become eligible in a few years, should get into the Hall first.