Hank Aaron and Mark McGwire

by David Fleitz
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P.S.  Did you know that Mark McGwire was a pitcher in college?  He started at USC as a pitcher, then switched to first base.

P.P.S.  McGwire was a member of the 1984 U. S. Olympic team (it was a demo sport then), but he didn't do very well.  He batted only .190 in the Olympics, with four singles and six strikeouts in five games.

 

Mark McGwire recently signed a two-year extension on his contract.  He's going to play for the Cardinals until at least the end of the 2003 season.  One of the news reports says that McGwire will beat Hank Aaron's home run record by the time this contract extension runs out.

McGwire is 202 homers shy of the record.  He'll break it by 2003 - if he hits 68, 67, and 67 homers in the next three seasons!

Okay, folks, let's make this simple.  Let's look at Aaron's and McGwire's career totals.

McGwire is 37 years old, and Aaron was 37 at the start of the 1971 season.  Their stats look like this:

                       Homers        RBI
  Aaron (1954-1970)     592         1,842
  McGwire (1986-2000)   554         1,350


So, McGwire is still 202 behind the record, and 38 behind Aaron's pace.  Aaron hit 47 homers in 1971, so McGwire could hit 50 this year and still be 35 behind Aaron's pace.

I don't think McGwire will get to 756 because:

The pitching.  It's got to get better this season, because major league pitching can't possibly get any worse.  The umpires are supposed to help the pitchers by calling strikes in a bigger strike zone now, and if they do, hitters like McGwire will have a hard time adjusting.

Injuries.  Aaron was a remarkably injury-free athlete, while McGwire had knee surgery over the winter and recurring back stiffness.  McGwire will be 38 in October, and he'll have to play into his early forties (like Aaron did) to get to 756 home runs.  I don't see him lasting long enough to do that..

Time.  If McGwire hits 51, 51, 50, and 50 homers in the next four seasons, he'll tie Aaron.  Who on earth could possibly hit 50 homers at the age of 40?  When Babe Ruth turned 40, the Yankees released him.  Aaron hit 20 homers at 40, while Willie Mays hit 18 and Mickey Mantle was three years into retirement.  I don't think it's realistic to assume that McGwire, with his injury history, will be the guy to turn time upside down.

I wrote a while ago that McGwire will wind up his career with 620-650 homers.  It's possible, I suppose, that he could slip into third place past Willie Mays, who hit 660 homers.  However, he won't pass Aaron (755) or Babe Ruth (714).  Check back to this page in about five years to see if I was right.