In a previous article, I compared the records of managers such as Leo Durocher and Walter Alston using "expected wins". In short, a manager in an 8-team league should win a pennant every 8 years, in a 10-team league every 10 years, etc. Now that Tommy Lasorda has been named to the Hall of Fame, I decided to ask why Lasorda got in before Sparky Anderson, a contemporary with a very similar record.
First off, I found out that Sparky can't be elected until the year 2000. Born in 1934, Sparky will turn 63 this year; a manager must be retired for five years before election to the Hall, unless he's past 65 years of age. Then he need only be retired for six months. So Lasorda, seven years older than Anderson, was elected to the Hall not even one year after retirement. Also, Sparky's managerial career may not yet be over, so stay tuned. If Terry Collins stumbles in Anaheim, or if some other team feels it has talent but needs a more skilled manager to get over the hump (Cleveland?) Sparky may get a call.
Anyway, you can see the article "Managers and Expected Wins" on the home page for an introduction to this topic. Did Tommy Lasorda win more pennants than he should have with the Dodgers? His career looks like this:
Expected Actual
Team Years Chance Pennants Pennants
Dodgers, 1977-92 16 .083 1.333 4
Dodgers, 1993-96 4 .071 .285 0
Total 20 1.618 4
Lasorda was expected to win 1.618 pennants in his career. He
won 4, which is 2.47 times as many as his expected pennants.
Sparky Anderson's record looks like this:
Expected Actual
Team Years Chance Pennants Pennants
Reds, 1970-78 9 .083 .750 4
Tigers, 1979-95 17 .071 1.214 1
Total 26 1.964 5
Anderson managed six years longer, and though his Tigers went south from 1989 to 1995, he still won 2.53 times more pennants than he should have. So Anderson's and Lasorda's managerial records are extremely similar; both belong in the Hall without question.