So anyway, Tony Gwynn said a few weeks ago that if he could go into September with his batting average in the .380s, he could make a run at .400 in the last four weeks of the season.
Gwynn, on the morning of August 30, is hitting .381 (190 for 499). He’s right where he wanted to be, primed for a shot at a .400 average. Right?
Wrong. Ain’t gonna happen.
Gwynn has been getting 3.98 at bats per game, and San Diego has 27 games left on the schedule. Gwynn can expect to get 108 more at bats (27 X 3.98 rounded). To hit .400 in 607 at bats (499+108) he would need 243 hits, or 53 more than he has now. So, he would have to hit .491 (53 for 108) in September to do it!
Even if he went 8 for 8 in a doubleheader he’d still need to hit .450 (45 for 100) the rest of the way. He’d have to put together a truly historic number of 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 games to even get close. In 1941 Ted Williams was hitting .411 in late August, and slid to .3995 before his 6 for 8 on the last day lifted him to .406. To hit .400, you’d be better off getting to .410 and falling back, rather than hitting .380 and fighting for each point.
Maybe next year. Tune in to 1998, when expansion pitching gives Gwynn or Larry Walker an even better shot at .400.