It's September 1. Todd Helton, first baseman of the Colorado Rockies, is hitting .395. Can he finish the season as the major leagues' first .400 hitter in 59 years?
I know this sounds strange coming from me, but I think he's got a pretty good chance.
First, let's look at the numbers. Helton has 187 hits in 474 trips to the plate for an average of .39451. He's been getting 3.62 times at bat per game, so if he plays the rest of Colorado's 29 games, he will bat 105 more times this season.
That will give him 579 times at bat, so to bat .400 he'll need 232 hits. With 232 hits he'll bat .401; with 231 he'll land at .399. So, he needs to get 45 more hits in those 105 times at bat.
Can he do it? He'll need to bat .429 in September (45 for 105), but he hit .512 (with a 1.000 slugging average!) in May, and .476 in August. It's an uphill battle, but of course it can be done.
I really should have noticed Helton earlier in the season. Helton is 27 years old, and good hitters often make incredible surges at age 27. Roger Maris was 27 when he hit 61 homers. Carl Yastrzemski won his Triple Crown at 27, Stan Musial had his monster 1948 season (.376, 230 hits) at 27, Ted Williams won his first Triple Crown at 27, George Sisler set his record of 257 hits at 27 ....
Aw, you get the idea. Anyway, a good hitter like Helton, improving every year, reaching age 27 and playing in the thin air of Denver is a prime candidate for a sudden spike in production.
The biggest thing Helton has going for him is that the Rockies play 19 of their remaining 29 games at home. That, along with the fact that Helton seems to be getting stronger as the season wears on, gives him a good chance to hit .400.
There's one other thing, though, that I haven't heard anyone mention. Helton has pounded 53 doubles so far. The all-time record is 67, by Earl Webb (the King of Doublin') of the Red Sox in 1931. Helton needs 14 doubles in September to tie and 15 to pass this record. It's possible, because he hit 18 doubles in August. The National League record is 64, by Joe Medwick of the Cardinals in 1936; Helton needs only 11 more in September to tie that record, which appears likely since he hit 11 in June and 10 in July.
As for me, I hope he hits .400. I know people will complain about the lively ball and the shrinking strike zone and Coors Field and all, but I hope he does it.